The MLB Home Run Derby is always a spectacle, but this year's field is particularly stacked, with eight competitors who are individually compelling to watch. As a self-proclaimed baseball expert, I'm here to rank these players and predict who will emerge victorious. While any of these guys could win, I'll provide a semi-educated guess at who will. To be clear, I've listed the players in order of what I believe to be their likelihood of winning.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies: Schwarber is a home run hitter par excellence, and this is his best chance yet to win the Derby. He's launching homers at his usual prodigious rate, he's healthy, and he's playing at his home park. It would feel almost wrong if Schwarber, one of the great home run hitters of his time, never wore the Home Run Derby crown. There’s no better place to do it than in front of his hometown fans.
Bryce Harper, Phillies: Harper is a Hall of Famer with nothing else to prove, but he's willing to do another Derby. No hitter has won the Derby in his home ballpark since 2018, when Harper himself did it at Nationals Park. He could pull off that feat again this year -- if Schwarber doesn’t beat him to it.
Junior Caminero, Rays: Caminero is a youthful energy in a contest that can sometimes be grueling. His recent run of 11 homers in 11 games launched the Rays, one of the most surprising teams in baseball, into the stratosphere.
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox: Murakami is a Japanese baseball fan's dream, and his power is unmatched. Even if injuries have slowed him down in his rookie season, having him back and ready to go is a sign we’re about to see some impressive big flies launched into the Philadelphia night.
Jordan Walker, Cardinals: Walker is a first-time All-Star in his first Derby, and he's having a breakthrough season. He has roughly the dimensions of Judge, and he nearly matches him in power. If he gets in a groove, he doesn’t even have to hit it on the sweet spot of the bat to get it out of the park.
Jac Caglianone, Royals: Caglianone is 23, which means he’d also be the youngest Home Run Derby champion. He only has 14 homers this year, but he’s coming in hot. We’ve been talking about Caglianone’s power since he was a college star at Florida.
Willson Contreras, Red Sox: Contreras has been dealing with a suspension and battles with umpires amidst the overwhelming emotion in the aftermath of the horrors of the Venezuelan earthquakes. It will be moving just to see Contreras on this sort of stage, and he has shown that he’s one of the top right-handed hitters in baseball.
Ben Rice, Yankees: Rice is maybe not the Yankees hitter everyone was hoping to see in this competition, but for the first two months of the season, this was in fact the best hitter on the Yankees -- not Judge. If he’s the eighth pick ... this is going to be some sort of interesting Derby.
In my opinion, the Derby is not just about the power of the swing, but also about the story behind each player. From the surprise of Walker's breakthrough season to the emotional journey of Contreras, this year's Derby is a celebration of the human spirit and the beauty of baseball. So, who will win? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure: this Derby will be an unforgettable spectacle.
